Predictive Business Analytics

Predicting key business and economic variables is increasingly important, as it drives both objective decision-making and improved profitability. This component aims to cover the main methods used to predict business and economic variables, based on historical data. These include traditional regression, time series, multivariate and econometric models, as well as emerging methods such as ensemble forecasts. Both point and density prediction will be considered, along with metrics for the quality of both. Throughout, the focus will be on introducing methods in the context of substantive business and economic problems, using a wide range of prediction methods. The importance of benchmarking different methodologies, and the use of prediction in decision-making frameworks, will also be stressed.