Statistics in Climate Dynamics

The subject will discuss some basic statistical methods for analysing climate dynamics with the aim of understanding the physical mechanisms driving the observed structures (statistics). The subject will emphasise how these methods can be applied and will explore the potential pitfalls in interpreting statistical results. The subject will start with a discussion on the basics of probability theory, time series analysis, stochastic models and multivariate data (pattern) analysis. It will then focus on the principles of decision making in statistical analysis (significance tests), which is followed by a discussion of the pitfalls and general strategies in statistical analysis.